Friday, 13 June 2008

How were my 2007 predictions?

I just remembered that I made a bunch of predictions at the start of 2007. Let's see how I did:
  1. Vodafone to sell out of Verizon Wireless (and expand further in Africa) - A bit right. They did invest further in emerging markets, but not really Africa and they didn't sell Verizon. In fact Verizon is on a buying spree itself, although let's see how that all plays out. Could be one for 2008. 3/10
  2. Hutchison Whampoa sells 3 - Nope. 0/10
  3. SonyEricsson will have a good year - what a great range of devices! Absolutely. SEMC kicked butt in 2007. It sold 103m units in 2007 up from 74m in 2006, increasing global market share from 7% to 9%. And these were typically pretty high-end phones, so they weren't just riding the wave of emerging market growth. The K850 and W910 sold by the millions in late '07. I think they may find '08 a bit more challenging though. 10/10
  4. Flat-rate mobile internet becomes the norm - yes, yes, yes. Everyone's doing it now. Charge by the MB? Not any more. £5-£8/month for "unlimited" mobile internet is the standard, be it Web'n'Walk or whatever. Not that tricky a trend to spot though if I'm honest. 8/10
  5. Mobile music still won't generate any revenue (except for ringtones) - Also true. O2 has done well with its music strategy: it doesn't sell downloads and has made loads of good publicity from sponsoring the dome...sorry, the O2. 9/10
  6. Everyone will plump for DVB-H - Still up in the air this one. Vodafone has come out as being agnostic and Qualcomm has secured spectrum suitable for MediaFLO, at least in the UK, so maybe things will be more complicated. 4/10
  7. Fixed mobile convergence won’t make the splash it’s expected to in the consumer market - Right again. No-one cares about FMC. Which makes me question the wisdom of getting into the LLU market in a big way (O2, Vodafone, Orange). Surely FMC must be the order of the day rather than simple bundling. But there doesn't really seem a particularly persuasive business model for FMC. 8/10
  8. MVNOs will continue their onward march. Sort of. Tesco's doing OK. Couple more launches, but nothing that's really tearing up any trees. 3/10
  9. Consumer mobile IM and email won’t take off - we're still waiting, even with flat rate data plans. 9/10
  10. Carphone Warehouse will suffer - not really. Agreement was reached and CPW seems pretty healthy, albeit at risk from the impending recession. 2/10

So, overall 56/100, which from memory is about a "C+". Must try harder.

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